Revisiting my predictions

I do have what to say about the Pennsylvania primaries, but the race for the Stanley Cup is much more pressing than the Democratic Party race for the nomination for President of the United States…and it will be decided sooner, it appears…

Here are the predictions I made regarding the conference quarterfinals, with notes revised now that all the series have been concluded, plus a judgment (in bold) of just how right or wrong I was in my prediction.

• Western Conference
  • #1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #8 Nashville Predators. I predicted: Detroit, 4-0. Result: Detroit, 4-2. Nashville gave a tremendous effort, in large part the result of terrific goaltending from Dan Ellis. Detroit did overpower them in the end, but it wasn’t the blowout that I predicted. Half-right!
  • #2 San José Sharks vs. #7 Calgary Flames. I predicted: San José, 4-2. Result: San José, 4-3. This one was awfully close to my prediction: the series was incredibly physical, with two games going to Calgary on the strength alone of hits delivered at exactly the right manner. Joe Thornton and Jeremy Roenick finally came alive to seal the deal for the Sharks in Game 7, however. Nearly right!
  • #3 Minnesota Wild vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche. I predicted: Minnesota, 4-1. Result: Colorado, 4-2. Boy, was I wrong about this one. Excellent goaltending from the Avs, plus opportune goal-scoring—especially in overtime—catapulted Colorado over the favoured Minnesota to the second-most stunning upset of the playoffs. Completely wrong!
  • #4 Anaheim Ducks vs. #5 Dallas Stars. I predicted: Anaheim, 4-3 (all games will be won at home). Result: Dallas, 4-2. Another one I was completely wrong on—the Ducks dropped the first two games at home, then made up the third on the road. They defeated themselves by taking too many unnecessary penalties. (Dyed-in-the-wool Anaheim fans will tell you that the Ducks get too many unfair penalties because the referees, for whatever reason, just don’t like them, and see penalties where there are none.) The Stars just played like they wanted it more. Completely wrong!
• Eastern Conference
  • #1 Montréal Canadiens vs. #8 Boston Bruins. I predicted: Montréal, 4-1. Result: Montréal, 4-3. Wow, this one was a lot closer than I suspected. Mistakes by B.C. kid Carey Price gave away Game 6, but he redeemed himself with a spotless 5-0 victory in game 7 to show that the Canadiens really did deserve the top spot. A shame, too, because Boston played exceptionally well—they were simply outplayed by a superior team in the end. Half-right!
  • #2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #7 Ottawa Senators. I predicted: Pittsburgh, 4-0. Result: Pittsburgh, 4-0. The Pens just outplayed the struggling Sens. Gerber was not very strong, but he was completely let down by his team’s offensive lines. To top it off, Emery is gone for good, it appears—if anybody else in the NHL will have him. Exactly right!
  • #3 Washington Capitals versus #6 Philadelphia Flyers. I predicted: Washington, 4-3. Result: Philadelphia, 4-3. I was close about this one: it was a close series right up to the end, when game 7 was decided on a power play in overtime. A shame for the Capitals, getting upset at home, but an otherwise excellent, physical series. Half-right!
  • #4 New Jersey Devils vs. #5 New York Rangers: I predicted: New Jersey, 4-3. Result: New York, 4-1. I was completely wrong here. Lundqvist out-goalied Brodeur by a long way, and with the loss of Scott Gomez (ironically, to the Rangers), they lost their offensive punch. “When you limp into the playoffs, this is the result you get,” said the Devils’ centre John Madden. And he’s completely correct—this was a well-deserved upset for the Rangers. Completely wrong!

Overall, not so bad, eh? Especially since I gave myself the latitude of upsets in three of the four cases where they actually happened.

The conference semifinals pit both conferences’ #1 and #2 teams against the #6 and #5, respectively. Someone more intrepid and bored than I should look up just how rare that is. Someone’ll probably bring it up at some point… Anyway, here are my guesses for Round 2:

• Western Conference
  • #1 Detroit Red Wings vs. #6 Colorado Avalanche. By most metrics, Detroit is the clear favourite here, but Colorado showed in the quarterfinal that they can—and will—play to win over the best of them. Detroit will have home-ice advantage, and with the special rabidity of the fans in Detroit, look for this to be a factor. But if Colorado’s goaltending is strong, and they put in good efforts in the first two games—they don’t necessarily have to win them both—look for them to be formidable contenders. Prediction: Colorado, 4-2.
  • #2 San José Sharks vs. #5 Dallas Stars. The Sharks showed they could beat the Flames physically, which means they’re going to have to do more of the same with the Sharks. There were 160 or so penalty minutes handed out in the last game of the regular season between these two foes—each team sent a message that they were going to play it hard and physical if they met during the playoffs. If Thornton, Cheechoo, Marlowe, and that crowd come alive for San José, they can put this one away quickly—if they don’t, it might take a while. Prediction: San José, 4-2.
• Eastern Conference
  • #1 Montréal Canadiens vs. #6 Philadelphia Flyers. Montréal will clobber the Flyers; the only question is by how much. I said the same thing about the quarterfinal, but Nashville turned out to be much more tenacious than I gave them credit for. Philly will pick up the one game which Price drops for the Habs, but otherwise they’ll lose, lose, lose. Prediction: Montréal, 4-1.
  • #2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 New York Rangers. This should be a terrific series. New York is just coming off a terrific upset of the Devils, and Pittsburgh basically coasted through Ottawa. Expect Pittsburgh to be tested, but Crosby, Malkin, and Sykora versus Lundqvist is the matchup to watch in this series. This has the makings of a game 7—the only one I’ll predict here. Prediction: Pittsburgh, 4-3.

My pick to win it all still remains the Sharks. After besting Calgary 4-3, they deserve it. Shame that series had to come so early, but at least everybody came out of it without horrendous injury…