Great expectations

I’m a little bit dismayed by all the talk setting up expectations for the debates in the American presidential election. The media and blogosphere seem to be setting up the expectations that not only will Obama wipe the floor with McCain in their debates, but that Sarah Palin will have her ass absolutely handed to her by Joe Biden. Furthermore, there’s this undercurrent of sexism feeding into this latter expectation, that Joe Biden will have to pull his punches or something, as if the fact that Sarah Palin has a vagina entitles her to special treatment in a debate context. This contrasts with the absolute lack of expectations on the Republican side: Sarah Palin, fresh off her interview with Charlie Gibson, may have stumbled a bit when asked what the Bush Doctrine was, but she didn’t completely crash and burn. So we have impossibly high expectations from the Democrats, compared with laughably low expectations from the Republicans.

As in years past, the Democrats have let themselves get pulled into a no-win situation here. If they succeed at completely trouncing the Republicans in the debates, they (especially Biden) will be painted as bullies who didn’t have the decency to go easy on a woman and a doddering old guy. If they slip slightly below expectations—one small gaffe, or even a sigh, should do it—they will be proclaimed to have “lost” the debates. And this is not unfamiliar territory for Democrats. Simply think of the media’s extremely low bar for George W. Bush in 2000, or the way they set up the dichotomy between Kerry the polished debater and George W. Bush the bumbling idiot in 2004, or the absolute evisceration of John Edwards for mentioning Dick Cheney’s gay daughter in their vice-presidential debate in 2004, and you’ll get the idea. The Democrats are set against an impossibly high standard, while the Republicans get the major benefit of the doubt.

This year it’ll be Obama the Ivy League-educated ultra-articulate orator versus Uncle McCain the lovable old scoundrel, and Biden the 38-year tough-guy debate veteran versus Palin the newbie, fragile but feisty but go-easy-on-her-because-she’s-a-woman. Sure, Obama and Biden will shine during the debates in 2008, but there is no way for these candidates to emerge victorious. All McCain and Palin have to do is show up, and let the media’s expectations of Obama and Biden do the work.