giles duceppe

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The Conservative Party is projected to win the federal general election of 2008, the media says. The Liberals seem to have hemorrhaged around two dozen seats, while the Conservatives made huge gains but failed to win enough seats to gain a majority. At this time, the breakdown is as follows:

  1. 143 Conservatives
  2. 76 Liberals
  3. 50 Bloc Québécois
  4. 37 New Democratic Party
  5. 2 Other

The numbers are still bouncing around quite a bit, and I’ll post the results tomorrow when the final counts are in. [Edited to add: the final results have been posted.] But for now, I’ll just give three thoughts, two national and the other local:

Nationally, the question is what is going to happen within the ranks of the Liberal Party. They have shown that they cannot be an effective opposition party either within the House of Commons itself or in the context of an election taking on a generally unpopular leader and government. With a whole slew of things going for them, the Liberals managed to shoot themselves in the foot terrifically. “The Liberal Party has got to do a lot more than think that saying ‘Harper!’ in a really sharp voice is enough to get you elected,” said Rex Murphy just now on the CBC, and he’s absolutely right. Dion relied too much on animosity towards Harper to win the election, and the voters handed his ass to him.

Locally, the Liberals appear to have held the riding of Vancouver Quadra, in which you may recall the Liberal candidate barely squeaked by in the March byelection. This time Joyce Murray held it by at least three thousand votes, so it wasn’t even close. Other Vancouver-area races are of course still being counted, but the major story would seem to be that the Green Party was not as effective as they might have been. They had a legitimate shot at taking a few ridings—especially Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver Centre—and if the polling results hold up, they don’t appear to have been a significant factor, coming in third in Quadra and not even registering in the top three in Centre. (On top of that, Elizabeth May, the Green Party leader, failed to unseat current government minister Peter MacKay in her Nova Scotia riding by over five thousand votes.) This is a real shame for the Greens, who looked like they were ready to burst onto the national stage, only to have their dreams fizzle out. At least for now.

I will leave you tonight with what Rick Mercer said just now on the CBC:

I think everyone’s being very polite about Stéphane Dion. He’s done, he’s gone, and [former Liberal leadership candidate] Michael Ignatieff right there [in an interview], he said Stéphane Dion’s name once. Once. That was it, and it was a Herculean effort to get it out of him. He wasn’t even going to mention the guy’s name. The earth is now salted. That was a speech by a guy who’s now running for leader, and that’s what’s happening inside the Liberal Party right now.

This has been a very odd night. We’ve spent three hundred million dollars, and no one has achieved their goals. The Prime Minister hasn’t achieved his goal, Stéphane Dion certainly hasn’t, [NDP leader] Jack Layton hasn’t. The only federal leader with any job security is [Bloc Québécois leader] Giles Duceppe, and he’s a separatist. And we just spent three hundred million dollars.

Absolutely true. The Tories don’t have a majority, the Liberals are going to have a leadership crisis in the next couple of days, the NDP didn’t establish themselves as a viable primary opposition party, and the Greens didn’t even really come close anywhere.

I guess we can just all get back to focussing on what really matters: destroying the oil sands destroying the senate destroying the stock market and our investments bashing Sarah Palin.

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No, not that one, down in the U.S. of A. The one up here! Wait, you say, you didn’t know there was one happening in Canada? That’s the beauty of parliamentary politics—the Prime Minister can ask the Queen Governor-General to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election pretty much whenever he likes. Okay, it’s a bit more complicated than that, but that’s the basic idea. So on 14 October there will be a federal election in Canada.

I haven’t written about this yet because, frankly, I’m sick of all the election talk, both about the American and Canadian elections, and in both the blogosphere and the “traditional media” (whatever that means these days). Fortunately, I don’t have to write about it, because Ian Welsh at Firedoglake has already done it. His post has everything you need to know about the upcoming Canadian federal election. Seriously, everything’s in there. Go ahead, read it.

Back? Good. I will simply add my two cents to a couple of Ian’s points. But first a little background. Part of the problem with parliamentary politics is that you need a majority to get anything done, and with five major federal parties nobody has been able to form a majority in the last couple of Parliaments. Add to that the fact that there are essentially four left-wing parties and one right-wing party (we can argue about that later, if you like), and you can see why there might be splits between various left-wing voters more than various right-wing voters, leading to pluralities for the right-wing party. The current Conservative Party was formed by a series of mergers of various right-wing parties and coalitions, and its current head Stephen Harper was one of the founding members of the Reform Party—an alliance of racists, sexists, homophobes, xenophobes, neocons, and general all-around bigots.

The Reform Party, though now defunct, lives on in the Conservative Party and its leader Stephen Harper. Don’t be fooled by people who say that in American politics the Conservatives would be regarded as liberal. Some Conservatives might be, as would some of the former constituent groups that merged. But as Ian Welsh noted, Harper is nothing more than “a neocon in Canadian drag”. His is a nonstop agenda of hawkish foreign policy, running up huge deficits by cutting taxes for the mega-rich, and trying to introduce constitutional reforms like an elected Senate which, as Welsh correctly notes, would only serve to “introduce US style gridlock and corruption”—more places for big business to throw its money into politics.

Stephen Harper doesn’t care about true social justice or effective remedies to some of this country’s problems, and he certainly doesn’t care one whit about ordinary people. He’s only interested in placating his friends in business—especially the oil industry—by lining their pockets with enormous tax cuts, letting them further destroy the natural environment, and creating more politicians whom they can then buy. Sound like anybody you might know in international politics?

Of course, the Liberal Party are handicapped by their own unpopular leadership in the person of Stéphane Dion, nobody takes the federal NDP or the Green Party seriously (though this might change if they can win a couple more seats in this election), and the Bloc Québécois doesn’t run candidates outside of Québec so they can’t win even a minority government. The leader of the Bloc, Giles Duceppe, was unfortunately correct when he said yesterday that his party was the only thing standing between Harper and a majority government. The situation doesn’t look good—Stephen Harper will probably be the next prime minister of Canada. The only question is whether he will lead a minority government and thus have continuing gridlock, or whether he will lead a majority government and thus plow his right-wing neocon agenda full steam through Canada.

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