The Conservative Party is projected to win the federal general election of 2008, the media says. The Liberals seem to have hemorrhaged around two dozen seats, while the Conservatives made huge gains but failed to win enough seats to gain a majority. At this time, the breakdown is as follows:
- 143 Conservatives
- 76 Liberals
- 50 Bloc Québécois
- 37 New Democratic Party
- 2 Other
The numbers are still bouncing around quite a bit, and I’ll post the results tomorrow when the final counts are in. [Edited to add: the final results have been posted.] But for now, I’ll just give three thoughts, two national and the other local:
Nationally, the question is what is going to happen within the ranks of the Liberal Party. They have shown that they cannot be an effective opposition party either within the House of Commons itself or in the context of an election taking on a generally unpopular leader and government. With a whole slew of things going for them, the Liberals managed to shoot themselves in the foot terrifically. “The Liberal Party has got to do a lot more than think that saying ‘Harper!’ in a really sharp voice is enough to get you elected,” said Rex Murphy just now on the CBC, and he’s absolutely right. Dion relied too much on animosity towards Harper to win the election, and the voters handed his ass to him.
Locally, the Liberals appear to have held the riding of Vancouver Quadra, in which you may recall the Liberal candidate barely squeaked by in the March byelection. This time Joyce Murray held it by at least three thousand votes, so it wasn’t even close. Other Vancouver-area races are of course still being counted, but the major story would seem to be that the Green Party was not as effective as they might have been. They had a legitimate shot at taking a few ridings—especially Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver Centre—and if the polling results hold up, they don’t appear to have been a significant factor, coming in third in Quadra and not even registering in the top three in Centre. (On top of that, Elizabeth May, the Green Party leader, failed to unseat current government minister Peter MacKay in her Nova Scotia riding by over five thousand votes.) This is a real shame for the Greens, who looked like they were ready to burst onto the national stage, only to have their dreams fizzle out. At least for now.
I will leave you tonight with what Rick Mercer said just now on the CBC:
I think everyone’s being very polite about Stéphane Dion. He’s done, he’s gone, and [former Liberal leadership candidate] Michael Ignatieff right there [in an interview], he said Stéphane Dion’s name once. Once. That was it, and it was a Herculean effort to get it out of him. He wasn’t even going to mention the guy’s name. The earth is now salted. That was a speech by a guy who’s now running for leader, and that’s what’s happening inside the Liberal Party right now.
This has been a very odd night. We’ve spent three hundred million dollars, and no one has achieved their goals. The Prime Minister hasn’t achieved his goal, Stéphane Dion certainly hasn’t, [NDP leader] Jack Layton hasn’t. The only federal leader with any job security is [Bloc Québécois leader] Giles Duceppe, and he’s a separatist. And we just spent three hundred million dollars.
Absolutely true. The Tories don’t have a majority, the Liberals are going to have a leadership crisis in the next couple of days, the NDP didn’t establish themselves as a viable primary opposition party, and the Greens didn’t even really come close anywhere.
I guess we can just all get back to focussing on what really matters: destroying the oil sands destroying the senate destroying the stock market and our investments bashing Sarah Palin.

